National Reader - At the risk of sounding like a complete idiot, let me repeat what you just said. -KB

<html>\n<span style="font-size:14px;">...and the elephant in the corner.</span></span>\n</html>\n\n''The popular opinion'' is that the economy was forced into a downturn by housing and subprime lending failures. It was nearly a year ago that the NAHB reported dramatically lower housing starts. Many now recognize a 79% correlation with a 12 month lag, between NAHB predictions and the S&P 500. \n[img[nahb.bmp]]\nGranted, the average consumer might've easily missed this 2006 prediction while practicing irrational exuberance brought about by watching their favorite house flipping show and daydreaming of opportunity.\n\n''The Wall Street Journal believes'' that the Fed uses Orders for Capital Goods, Initial Jobless Claims, Homebuilder Sentiment, Retail Sales and the Bond Market as the five leading economic indicators. Now it's important to make a distinction between indicators like the temperature gauge in your car, and predictors like the road sign which reads "Last chance for gas 50 miles."\n\n''The cost of energy began rising'' before leading indicators showed the effect. In March of 2000 the Department of Energy reported that gasoline rose 20% over a three month period to hit an all time record high of $1.53 a gallon. I would argue this was the needle which burst the Tech Industry bubble, and is the same trigger for the recent housing market implosion. Still, today's volatility in energy markets shows how susceptible we remain.\n[img[oil.bmp]]\nIf you include the cost of waging war in the energy equation then yes, we're paying far more for manufacturing and moving all goods and services today. But, I'm sorry you haven't seen the elephant yet. Whether paying at the pump, home energy providers or Federal taxes, our spending moderates pricing of everything we consume including homes.\n\n''American spending power has slipped'' against the runaway Euro and Canada's Loon which has reached parity with the US dollar for the first time in 31 years.\n[img[loon1.jpg]]\nThis means more foreign investment remeniscent of Japan's 300 billion dollar US real-estate acquisitions of the 1980's. Now can you guess what happens next? Middle Eastern governments today bursting with oil profits have already spent 64 billion dollars this year in foreign investment.\n\n<html>\n<span style="font-size:18px;font-family:times"><i>\nThe way out is a universal cultural shift in each Amercian's individual spending, debt and investment management behaviors; and THAT is the elephant in the corner.</i></span>\n</html>\n\n''I've just added'' a new Finance and Economy section to the [[Links]] tiddler of this site in case anyone is interested in following my advice.\n\n\n

[[Home]]

Those you choose to manipulate have a lifetime to figure it out.\n\nYou chose your lane now drive in it.\n\nEveryone is an excellent driver and a photographer.\n\nSometimes success isn't really an option either.\n\nCaffeine is a job performance enhancing drug.\n\nIf you feel like your education is not applicable then you skipped math and science.\n\nFor every flow-charted process there is a more tangible tide which washes it away.\n\nThe high road is open year round to all travelers on the argument expressway.\n\nAnalogies are like song lyrics in that sometimes they make sense and sometimes they don't.\n\nQ: Why do so many companies quote their policies as if they superseded federal laws? \nA: Ask their lobbyists.\n\n\n

<html>\n<br>\n<img src="Fitness.jpg" border="0">\n</html>\nIn 2005 Americans spent over 12 billion dollars towards the fitness industry. Let's disregard for a moment anything spent on plastic surgery which is a multi-billion dollar industry as well. The National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute estimates that 97 million American citizens are overweight. You'd think we were trying to buy our way towards better health. If you listen to the fitness industry, then why wouldn't they have you believe that there's no way to get healthy without spending some of your hard earned money?\n\nThe not so shocking truth? IT IS NOT IN THE FITNESS INDUSTRY'S BEST INTEREST TO TEACH PEOPLE HOW TO LOSE WEIGHT AND MAINTAIN GOOD HEALTH. If you didn't get that, then read it again.\n\nIf you want to lose weight, you need to look at the following factors.\nGenetics - Yes, people can be predisposed to being overweight, or have health conditions passed down to them from their parents.\n\nEnvironment - Busy lifestyles, stress and lack of balance in our lives exact a heavy toll on our bodies.\n\nChoices - You can make decisions which can improve your health and fitness, and this doesn't mean spending more money.\n\nIf you're serious about losing weight and getting healthy then read on. Here's the good news, it's not as difficult as you think, there are no insurmountable sacrifices to be made.\n\nLesson 1: FORGET ABOUT DIETING. \nYour body has no idea what the brain intends through dieting. It's just like trying to pet a porcupine, or bathe a cat. The intention is right but the method is wrong.\n\nLesson 2: MUSCLES ARE YOUR METABOLISM\nIf you plan on dieting anyway, your body will turn immediately to the nearest source of protein, your muscles. As your muscles are depleted, so are the calorie burning factories which might have reduced your weight and helped you to keep it off.\n\nArmed with these two simple lessons we're now prepared to be healthy without spending a dime. \n\n<html>\n<li>First, build muscle</li>\n<li>Second, modify the foods you eat</li>\n<li>Third, reduce the food you eat</li>\n</html>\nBuilding muscle does NOT mean heading to the gym! Now I know this is a huge let down for people who love to socialize, but unless your fond of squandering time and money, there is a simpler approach. \n\nTop athletes consume huge amounts of calories and still manage to keep it off. They're able to do this because their muscles require tremendous amounts of energy just to maintain. \n\nNo, it's not time to buy your way out. Save your money and get back to the basics. You need muscles, calorie burning factories, NOT another gym membership or the latest piece of unattractive equipment to take up precious space in your home.\nJust be honest and ask yourself these questions:\n1. Can I do 10 or more strict push-ups?\n2. Can I do 5 or more pull-ups?\n3. Can I do 20 or more sit-ups?\n4. Can I walk briskly, bike, jog or swim once or twice a week for 25 minutes?\n\nIf you answered "no" to any of these then you either have a physical condition which prevents you from engaging in such activities, or you are horribly out of shape, plain and simple! \n\nMore good news, if you answered "no" to any of these then there's nowhere to go but up! You should be practicing these types of exercises at least three times a week. There's no need to go overboard. Training to failure is no way to encourage yourself toward longterm success. Establish exercise routines at a set time of day, preferably in the morning, and your body will adapt quite nicely.\n\nNow for my personal tips:\n\n1. SKIP BREAKFAST\nBreakfast is NOT the most important meal of the day. Your body is NOT programmed for waking up and having breakfast without a little effort. Years of evolution allow your body to go without morning meals by absorbing stored nutrients in your body. Our great ancestors before us had little means of preserving food, and were required to wake every day without readily available bacon and eggs, cereal or pancakes.\n\nTry starting your day with a piece of fruit or a cup of coffee. If you're not accustomed to this then I offer the following encouragement.\n\nFeelings of hunger are associated with the actual process of metabolizing fat stores in the body. When you feel hungry you're losing weight. I'm not suggesting starving yourself! Go until lunch, or if your feeling irritable, nervous or out of sorts then it's time to eat. \n\n2. EATING FOOD FOR ENJOYMENT AND BREATHING AIR FOR FUN\nBe honest, the human body gives rewards generously for eating the foods it wants, you are no different than the majority in being able to say "I eat for enjoyment."\n\nIf you are eating more than you should, then practice these techniques. Don't start off with a large portion. Make one sandwich instead of two, take 2 cookies instead of four. If you consume the food and still feel hungry, then wait 10 minutes and if you're still hungry then go get more. Eat what you like, but like what you eat.\n\nChanging the types of foods you eat does not require a trip to an overpriced healthfood store. Remember, we're not here to fund the fitness industry. \nExamine your local grocery store. Now chances are I don't shop where you do, and I'm not psychic, so try not to be astounded when I tell you the following. If you buy most of the products from the grocery store from the outside aisles, you will be healthier and have more energy than if you buy from the inner most aisles. \nNow stop and think about what I just said. All stores are deliberately designed with fresh foods around the perimeter where they can be easily rotated and maintained, whereas highly processed foods are purposely located deep inside the store where they require less access by stock workers. If you find yourself spending more money in the center of the store then it's time to move to the outside.\n\n3. TIME FOR DESSERT? SUGAR CHANGES THE METABOLISM PROCESS\nIt takes around ten minutes for your body to tell your brain that you are full and there is no need to continue eating. As your body metabolizes high protein foods and carbs, it must incorporate acids and sugars to "burn" and assimilate the material. Your body can simulate the sugars it needs through serum glucose in the blood. This sugar is derived from food and is burned as energy, and is required by the brain and nervous system.\nIt takes 6 seconds for the body to STOP deriving sugar from difficult sources when sugar is detected by tastebuds in the mouth. This signal changes the metabolism process in order to slow the loss of stored material in your system. \nRecent studies suggest that even chewing sugarless gum may trigger the same phase shift in the metabolism.\nIf you can do without dessert, or wait an hour while your body digests the current food in your system then you're much better off.\n\nWhew! That's it, if you practice these approaches you will become healthier and lose weight. Who knows, you may even save money. If you are in poor health then please consult a physician before changing anything in your current routine, or if you are unable to make progress.

The modern US food pyramid gives Americans choices\n<html>\n<img src="ModernUSFoodPyramid.jpg" width="500px">\n</html>\nOkay....so it's a triangle; like on the dollar bill.

<html>\n<div style="color:#000000;font-weight:bold">Charitable</div>\n<a href="http://www.charitynavigator.org" target="_blank">Charity Navigator</a>\n<p>\n<div style="color:#000000;font-weight:bold">Health Sciences</div>\n<a href="http://www.foodmatters.tv" target="_blank">FoodMatters</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.apa.org/" target="_blank">American Psychological Association</a><br>\n<p>\n<div style="color:#000000;font-weight:bold">Finance and Economy</div>\n<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com" target="_blank">Bloomberg.com</a><br>\n<a href="http://investopedia.com/?viewed=1" target="_blank">Investopedia</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.fool.com" target="_blank">Motley Fool</a><br>\n<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/" target="_blank">Seeking Alpha</a>\n<p>\n<div style="color:#000000;font-weight:bold">News and Information</div>\n<a href="http://en.citizendium.org" target="_blank">Citizendium</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.economist.com/" target="_blank">The Economist</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/" target="_blank">Guardian Unlimited</a>\n<p>\n<div style="color:#000000;font-weight:bold">Political</div>\n<a href="https://www.augustreview.com/" target="_blank">August Review</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.cato.org" target="_blank">Cato Institute</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.eff.com" target="_blank">Electronic Frontier Foundation</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.thenewamerican.com/" target="_blank">The New American</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.citizen.org" target="_blank">Public Citizen</a><br>\n<p>\n<div style="color:#000000;font-weight:bold">Technical</div>\n<a href="http://www.makezine.com/" target=\n"_blank">Make - Technology on your time</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.nsf.gov/" target="_blank">National Science Foundation</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.ted.com" target="_blank">TED</a><br>\n<a href="http://www.census.gov/" target="_blank">US Census Bureau</a><br>\n</html>

[[Home]]\n[[Links]]

I've made it a personal policy never to give advice at the hardware store. People just can't appreciate unsolicited input these days. "You can destroy your house and Home Depot can help." I can't stop the flood of humanity from exacting Katrina level disasters on their homes. \nWhen I was younger I had enough sense to withold suggestions. No matter what golden nugget I might have thought to offer. I was too financially poor on credibility to offer my advice. \n\nToday, I've remodeled two homes, and have worked in countless trades and corporate jobs. As I've gained experience in health, relationships, education and careers, I've earned credibility through trial and error, success and failure. I'm ready to give advice but, don't expect me to come to you, I still practice the "Hardware Store Policy."\n\n1. Success breeds confidence, but failure builds character. \n2. You must face adversity in order to grow. \n3. All human endeavors begin with a single thought. \n4. Genius is imaginary. Enthusiasm is the keystone of what we are able to accomplish.

<html>\nThis easy-to-use illustration explains all you need to know about Basic Option Trading Strategies<p>\n<html>\n<a href="Options.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="Options_Basics.jpg"></a><br>\n(click for larger image)\n</html>

<html><i>At the risk of sounding like a complete idiot, let me repeat what you just said. -KB</i></html>

National Reader

<html>\n<span style="font-weight:bold;font-size:16px">Incrementalism and a surveillance society</span><br>\n<i>"Those Who Sacrifice Liberty For Security Deserve Neither."</i> -Ben Franklin\n<br>\n<img src="notSecure.jpg"><p>\n<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveillance_society" target="_blank"><b>Mass Surveillance</b></a> - <i>Wikipedia.org</i><p>\n<a href="http://www.aclu.org/privacy/spying/surveillancesocietyclock.html" target="_blank"><b>Click Here to Check the Time</b></a> - <i>The ACLU Surveillance Society Clock</i>\n</html>

<html>\n<font size="3"><i>An amusing way to pick stocks using search engines</i></font>\n</html>\n\nFirst another story. It began as an experiment in group-think in regards to the possibility of an impending recession. Given a hypothesis that the more that the very word "recession" were to appear in news sources the more likely an actual recession was about to occur.\n\nThe jury is still out on whether a recession is imminent but my sources say it is. And, what are my sources? In an experiment ranging from mid-December to the writing of this article I decided to perform a search for the word "recession" through http://news.google.com. \n[img[RecessionGraph.jpg]]\n\nThe count of results returned show a 24% increase over the time period which suggests strongly that we might indeed be going there. After all our economy is based two-thirds upon the consumer and their sentiment which is derived from what news services and analysts are saying.\n\n''Formal Definition of Recession''\n* In general terms a recession is defined by a decline in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), however the [[Bureau of Economic Research|http://www.bea.gov/]] defines it as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."\n\n''Expanding on this concept,'' stocks themselves are clearly affected by sentiment, and in fact there are many companies which do nothing but rank stocks based on sentiment.\n\nTherefore, if a company's name was searched in conjunction with a series of positive words and then searched again with the antonyms of those words then a ratio could be made between the counts of the search results.\n\nI've decided to call this a "Web Enabled Stock Sentiment Ratio" or WESS Ratio for short.\n\nRegarding this WESS Ratio, one must first assume that companies make a concerted effort to speak positively about themselves through advertising and press releases. This should mean that there is some ratio which is typically true of any given company which tilts results towards more positive bias than negative. \n\nAs I came to find out it really depends on the words used in combination with any given company and with my initial set it appeared to be somewhere around 1.8 to 1 positive or the company was clearly not doing well.\n\nUsing adjectives which typically have a positive connotation and market centric terms seemed to be the most accurate approach. \n\nGoogle News appears to limit the number of words used with the company to eight. So the positive and negative queries I performed looked something like these:\n\n''Positive Query''\n* "Company X" Good|Happy|Up|Positive|High|Buy|Strong|Better\n''Negative Query''\n* "Company X" Bad|Unhappy|Down|Negative|Low|Sell|Weak|Worse\n\nYou simply need to run these queries from a site like http://news.google.com and then create your WESS Ratio of the two counts of results returned expressed as follows:\n\n''POSITIVE RESULTS / NEGATIVE RESULTS = SENTIMENT (WESS Ratio)''\n\n''Amazon (AMZN) Example:''\n \n* Amazon Good|Happy|Up|Positive|High|Buy|Strong|Better = 12,994 search results\n* Amazon Bad|Unhappy|Down|Negative|Low|Sell|Weak|Worse = 6,675 search results\n\n''Ratio:''\n* 12,994 / 6,675 = 1.95 Good...\n[img[AMZN.JPG]]\n\n''~ETrade (ETFC) Example:''\n \n* ~ETrade Good|Happy|Up|Positive|High|Buy|Strong|Better = 126 search results\n* ~ETrade Bad|Unhappy|Down|Negative|Low|Sell|Weak|Worse = 1,393 search results\n\n''Ratio:''\n* 126 / 1,393 = .090 Not so good...\n[img[ETFC.JPG]]\n\nWithin a spreadsheet I created I also included a simple formula to display a BUY or SELL based on an "IF" statement, which included the company's WESS Ratio when compared against a cut-off point that I chose. However a better idea would be to trend the WESS Ratio from day to day.\n\n''Throwing Out Results''\nGranted you should throw out attempts to search on companies such as "Caterpillar" which return news stories regarding apple tree infestations of wormlike larvae. WESS Ratios for this company would always be affected by news accounts of tiny vermin which would effectively squelch out real references to the company. Even their symbol (CAT) isn't very helpful.\n\nYou should also throw-out any attempt to analyze a company producing low search result counts as inconclusive. I'd guess anything under a total of 500 hundred search results from the positive and negative columns combined.\n\n''Time Frame''\nDepending upon the search engine you're using, you should do some research to try and find out how far back the bulk of the search results date. This will define the time period of the ratio you've derived from searching. When you compare the ratio against a stock chart, try and see where the ratio shows the affect.\n\n''Heading Up or Heading Down?''\nJust because a company has a good ratio today doesn't mean it will have one tomorrow and vice-versa.\n\nNow you're in a position to trend your WESS Ratio over time which should show the direction a stock may take based upon the cumulative opinion of news and search results returned. What I'm suggesting is that it's difficult for a large number of positive results to be suddenly outnumbered by a larger number of negative results unless they're being outpaced. This would occur in the case of a major press release which would reveal that your ratio has dropped precipitously. This, if you're no stranger to automation, should trigger a SELL order based upon triggers you might set in your query and capture engine.\n\n''Conclusion''\nIf you're still reading I think you've got it. It's really very simple and should be filed under "Why hasn't anyone thought of this before." The truth is, Sentiment is a bonafide and well accepted investment tool. You can find ratings for it through many paid-for services. Or you can just do it yourself, given that the information is freely available through most major search engines.\n\n''Credits''\nThe stock charts and search results provided by Google.com for educational purposes.\nRecession - Wikipedia.org

Have you ever noticed how your home may actually seem warmer at night after a hot summer day?\n\nIn actuality, your house is most likely no warmer than the highest temperature it reached during the day but the interior air temperature can increase and become warmer than outside temperatures during the night.\n\nThermal mass is a non-scientific term used in solar energy circles to describe the ability for materials to retain heat. Thermal mass may be the bricks, wood frame, plasterboard and furniture which comprise your home. A home with a substantial and suitable thermal mass can modulate temperature extremes by storing residual ambient temperatures. But, this doesn't explain why your bedroom cooks at night.\n\nHeat, at a molecular level is actually kinetic agitation. This molecular agitation is transferable via conduction, convection and radiation. Now that we've established that heat can move we should also understand that heat may reach equilibrium, such as the case when the sun is shining and the walls are just as warm. That may be tolerable but, when the sun sets and the ambient temperature drops then heat is actually drawn from thermal mass into the air.\n\nAlthough you may be sweating in your covers, the house is actually cooling by reaching equilibrium with the surrounding air.\n\nWhat's the solution?\n\nThe most efficient way to dissipate the heated air trapped within your house is to exhaust it from your house. Though, this will not stop the cooling process it will encourage it to continue until the thermal mass of your home and the outside temperature are the same.\n\n